The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

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rwtucker
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Re: The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

Post by rwtucker »

It is discouraging to learn of your experience leading a Ground School Steven. As I mentioned, from our research and from our conversations with AOPA, money is at the center of this decline. There are other issues, such as competing priorities in a digital age and a decline in the public's perception of the glory of flying, once linked to our WWII military heroes, etc.

In general, I don't think that the case for too little time is a strong one. Americans are spending a higher proportion of their time involved in recreational activities than ever before.

Even if time and money were to account for most of the variance in the decline, flying clubs address both in a substantial way. This is why we are asking AOPA to broaden their initiatives on flying clubs and why we hope to support them with intellectual and financial assistance.

I agree that AOPA initiatives such as Basic Med and the Rusty Pilot Program will slow the rate of decline slightly. The mean age of Private Pilots is 48.4 (up from 46.2 in 2002) and 43% are over 55 years of age. Adding a few flying years to this segment will lessen the rate of decline. (The decline is steep. Active Privates: 1985=311,086, 1995=261,399, 2005=228,619, 2016=162,313)

As you say, GA is changing and decline is a key element of that change. The best guess of the experts to whom I have spoken is that the changes we are seeing will lead to the kind of restrictions on private aviation we see in the other members of the G7, an acceleration of the rate at which GA airports are closing (250 public use airports closed in the past 20 years, several hundred more under pressure today), mandatory flight plans for all but short rural flights, Homeland security restrictions on cargo and range, outsize cost increases that transform small GA into a hobby limited to those of us fortunate enough to be in the top few percent of the income distribution, and a loss of voice in Congress that will make it easier to impose further restrictions as the non-flying members see fit.

Are these changes reversible? The odds are probably against it, but it seems worth a try.
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Re: The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

Post by CFIDave »

There's at least one upcoming development that has the potential to impact the demise of GA: As drones proliferate, imagine overgrown electric "quadcopters" or similar devices that can fly human passengers short distances, perhaps operating autonomously or with very simple to operate autopilots.

While not exactly GA flying as we know it today, such vehicles might provide a link between drone flying and fixed-wing aviation. There's a reason AOPA is now promoting membership to drone pilots.
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rwtucker
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Re: The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

Post by rwtucker »

CFIDave wrote:There's at least one upcoming development that has the potential to impact the demise of GA: As drones proliferate, imagine overgrown electric "quadcopters" or similar devices that can fly human passengers short distances, perhaps operating autonomously or with very simple to operate autopilots. While not exactly GA flying as we know it today, such vehicles might provide a link between drone flying and fixed-wing aviation. There's a reason AOPA is now promoting membership to drone pilots.
Pretty exciting stuff. I was looking at the FAA's Remote Pilot data for 2016 (first reporting year in the Civil Airman stats): 20,362 certificate holder. It will be interesting to see 2017 data.
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Re: The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

Post by Don »

CFIDave wrote:There's at least one upcoming development that has the potential to impact the demise of GA: As drones proliferate, imagine overgrown electric "quadcopters" or similar devices that can fly human passengers short distances, perhaps operating autonomously or with very simple to operate autopilots.

While not exactly GA flying as we know it today, such vehicles might provide a link between drone flying and fixed-wing aviation. There's a reason AOPA is now promoting membership to drone pilots.
Yep...this is where I think the future of GA is going. Electric powered flight vehicles that are operating autonomously and plugged into a master flight operations network. With that said, it will take some of the fun out of it.
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rwtucker
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Re: The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

Post by rwtucker »

We have commercial airlines which are, to us, driverless yet I fly 1,000 miles in my DA40 at a similar net time and cost. We have highways that deliver automobiles efficiently (and soon without drivers) from point A to Point B yet the UTV market is robust and growing. Small GA will soon embrace electric power plants and Return-to-Airport firmware in autopilots. And so on. I see improvements in all parts of transportation as one issue, and the objectives of personal and private transportation as a different issue. I’m not sure that continued refinements in the one necessarily diminish the other.
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