Used Aircraft Market

[VickersPilot]

For anyone who enjoys following used airplane price economics (IMHO bubble), I suggest watching the available inventory number on Controller. In absolute terms, it means little but the trend change is significant. I watched it fall from c. 5,000 (c. 2020) to c. 2,900 (Jan 22) and now rise to 3,302 (June 22).

The trend in this number should be a leading indicator to price declines or increases.

https://www.controller.com/listings/for ... rcraft/all
1 - 25 of 3,302 Listings

[gyro3816]

A better indicator is the aviation training segment and demand for Diamonds in those fleets. Used fleet will continue to climb right along new MSRPs. Calling this a bubble is wishful thinking for would-be buyers.

[MackAttack]

It does vary by aircraft type and is in some cases model-specific. But the laws of supply and demand will always govern the market. As supply increases with a fixed demand, prices will tend to fall IF the relevant market has enough units to be relatively liquid. A very thinly-traded market will be slower to respond to short term swings in supply. For example, a friend of mine at Aerista has told me (and written a nice article in the current MMOPA magazine for the PA46 crowd) that the Cirrus SRxx supply has increased dramatically. But in other segments (Diamond twins being one that I watch and PA46), the supply hasn’t changed dramatically and the demand is still there.

It will be interesting to see how interest rate increases and a nascent recession will affect the demand side of the equation… I wouldn’t call this a “bubble” but I do think we are headed for a correction in used aircraft pricing in general.

[Lou]

It will be interesting to see how interest rate increases and a nascent recession will affect the demand side of the equation… I wouldn’t call this a “bubble” but I do think we are headed for a correction in used aircraft pricing in general.

I would add the stock market correction to this list. “Wealth effect” can have an impact on luxury goods.

[VickersPilot]

Refer to first post as reference.

July 2023 - 4,534 listings on Controller

37% increase in inventory YoY. Tight squeeze is over.

[VickersPilot]

5,300 mark passed today… I’ll take a guess we will see approx 7,500 units inside of 2 years.

[Rich]

Inventories may be up, but some airframes are hot commodities. I have an acquaintance who was looking at an 18,000-hour 1975 C172 but it got snatched up within a week, along with two others the same guy was selling.