The Decline and Eventual Demise of Small GA?

[briankelly327]

Just to add a completely anecdotal and unscientific response - the future of GA seems to be alive and strong, at least in the northeast. And the younger base is still motivated and hungry.

I got my license just before my 30th birthday 18 months ago, adding myself to the DA-40 buyer base 8 months later. My neighbor plane on the field (an awesome yellow RV-6) is owned by a mid-30s guy from manhattan. A vacant slot next to his was just filled by a Grumman Tiger purchased by a 30-year-old who lives down the street from me. A 28-year old friend from the gym just wrapped up his private, waiting to do his instrument after b-school applications, and is looking for a diamond share opportunity or partnership of some sort. The 30-year old pilots are definitely out there.

A high school classmate who has always had the aviation bug saw enough of my aviation posts on instagram that he finally reached out to a flight school to learn to fly, only to find they were completely booked up for the next two weekends. Hangars are waitlisted at our airport (even at the $800/mo rate being asked). And most ramp slots are taken.

And regarding excitement, there is some great content online that serves as advertisement for GA. I would have loved this stuff as a kid. People can get access to youtube accounts like Matt Gunthmiller (search LimitlessHZ on youtube) and Steveo1Kinveo and FlightChops who do a great job creating aviation content weekly (you can watch for free!). And brands like go-pro help showcase aviation, with inspiring (sometimes unsafe) content on social media marketed towards people who might not have even known to look. I also find it fascinating that even the silicon valley billionaires are getting out of their apps and buying into the aviation bug, pouring money into the space race 2.0, and VCs are funding drone taxis, all of which could fund innovation to benefit us using someone else dollar, and continues to spark public interest.

Anyways, as a 31 year old with just 300 hours, I most definitely still have rose colored glasses but the future of GA doesn't seem like the light is fading... as long as the govt and regulators don't mess it up!

[Lou]

Thinking about this some more. Another long-term change in Canada, it used to be possible to get your license for free so long as you agreed to serve in times of war. Then after that, flight lessons were tax deductible. Lots of business people and professionals used that one. Both of these had disappeared by the 1980's, coincident with the commencement of the long term decline.

[rwtucker]

Lou -- These changes in economic factors in Canada are really interesting and informative. Do you have any data comparable to what I posted above comparing 2007 with 2016 or similar periods (PVT vs. commercial)?

While the short span I put together for the US market is informative, I am looking for comparable source for a much longer comparison. The decline due to the aging population is occurring now whereas declines due to increased costs might be projected to have begun much earlier. APOA is also of the opinion that increased costs is a primary driver of the decline. Of course, other factors as well.

[Rich]

Analyzing Private vs. Commercial seems a bit tricky. I've held a Commercial ticket for 44 years now, and even had a Class II medical for a number of those years, though I no longer bother to carry Class II.

In the US, the long decline was coincident with the expiration of provisions in the GI Bill that provided fairly generous support for getting ratings beyond Private. (It paid 90% of my Commercial, Instrument and Flight Instructor costs. Then for a few years after that, my students paid for my hours )

Then various building booms started happening, contributing in various ways to airport closures that continue to this day. (It's worth noting that the airports at which I did most of my training for Private, Commercial, and Instrument are all long gone now.) As the number of airports diminish, flying became less useful to those with certificates. This affected me for a number of years, leading to a total absence from aviation for 10 years. (Gotta drive 50 miles to the nearest airport to fly ... where?)

Sales of new airplanes dried up precipitously in the early 80's. Cessna quit making singles altogether for 10 years. Though lots like to bash regulations alone, the outlandish cost of new aircraft is exacerbated by the very serious problem of fewer airframes being sold over which to amortize the fixed costs of operations. Witness the fact that when Cessna started making airplanes again, the 152 disappeared altogether, as did its retractable singles. Various Piper models disappeared. All the manufacturers are basically up-selling everything. Producing stuff with all sorts of built-in "accessories" to make the sparkly things look worth it.

For example: the DA40. We bought ours new with virtually everything available at the time (2002) for 225K. (We passed on the tow package ) Now it costs double that, albeit with various incremental improvements on some areas at the cost of certain utility in others. Also Cirrus. The SR20 was typically bait to sell the SR22. The latter has always significantly outsold the former (for good reason).

Light Sport was supposed to cure all that. But these things typically are loaded up with goodies "demanded" by the buyers, to where they also rival in price those rare part23 aircraft of similar capabilities. This market is so marginal Cessna tried it and gave up. Keep in mind, other than the restrictions FAA placed on capabilities of entries in this sector, the manufacturers have considerable leeway in how they build these things and the equipment they put in them.

[LTek1]

I also generally feel good about aviation around my airport. Our school has ten or so planes, all of which fly daily. A new pilot is minted at least monthly, with other ratings and solos racking up, too. Hangars are historically a 3 month waiting list, though there is one vacancy currently that may be a negative data point. Sometimes I'm the only person in the pattern, sometimes I'm one of six.

As for ages, I bought my '40 three years ago when I was 32, and the Hanover Pilot's Association, a pet project of mine, is mostly filled out with younger pilots.

That said, when we travel, we land at airports that are just ghost towns apparently doing nothing other than living on their local and federal subsidies. We've landed at airports with freshly paved runways, modern fuel pumps, recently renovated lounges, and not encountered a single other human or radio call for an hour or two lunch break. Compared to our airport, it's almost spooky.

I take aviation evangelism seriously. I do as many Young Eagles flights as I can find; I take friends and their kids and family members for rides. I buy people discovery flights with my instructor. I am trying to get Hanover county to install (or let my club install) an aviation-themed playground as part of the new ramp project at our airport.

But. When I ask my fellow local pilots for help with these things, I get none. When we advertise flyouts to a mailing list of 300 people, we get three or four signups.

In a way, I feel like there is lots of pilot interest, but the 'airport community' vibe is gone, which makes it seem uninviting and inaccessible. Every one of us has a sign at our airport that says "Authorized entry only" or something similar - I wonder what would happen if every one of those gates also had a sign that said "Call XXX for free airplane rides! Call XXX for flight lessons!"

I think interested pilots find a way. I think our outreach to those people is pathetic.

[LTek1]

What would happen if every single current pilot 'sponsored' a student all the way through their checkride? Helping with the finances would be an investment in the future of aviation, but even just mentorship, encouragement, help with studying? What if we all did that once per year?

[rwtucker]

What would happen if every single current pilot 'sponsored' a student all the way through their checkride? Helping with the finances would be an investment in the future of aviation, but even just mentorship, encouragement, help with studying? What if we all did that once per year?

Lee,

Based on the conversations I have had (quite a few but nowhere near representative), what you suggest would succeed in restoring the small GA population, even if only one in 10 of us did this. It would nudge those who are close but still on the "I can't do it" side of the line over to the "Let's give it a try" side. The "nudge" would work on a few levels. Many of us had mentors or at least a model to whom we looked when we were contemplating becoming a pilot. Sometimes it only takes a, "I can help you figure this out" from a friend to make a pilot out of a passenger. Second, for those for whom finances are a problem, the decision that they cannot afford to fly is based on current budget allocations. Once the flying bug has infected the host (er . . . pilot), I have seen how creative pilots can be in adjusting their expenditures on other optional items.

We are working on a plan that incorporates your points right now. The only point I would add is we think that our assistance will be more helpful if the would-be pilot has some initial skin in the game. For that reason, we are working on a plan of incremental financial support, based on achieving milestones, combined with a buddy system to get through the tough spots. I would be happy to share what we learn as it develops.

[LTek1]

I would love to follow along. I can imagine a kind of "pledge" website where pilots are encouraged to pledge their support, then check in on progress. A giant progress meter shows how we're doing, collectively, and we get regular reminders to check in with our mentorees. Sporty's or somewhere with a vested interest gives us discounts on little pilot gifts and training materials. FBOs and pilot clubs offer discounts and scholarships.

There isn't a single stakeholder in all of aviation who doesn't benefit from a massive, concerted effort to build the pilot population.

[Rich]

What would happen if every single current pilot 'sponsored' a student all the way through their checkride? Helping with the finances would be an investment in the future of aviation, but even just mentorship, encouragement, help with studying? What if we all did that once per year?

As it happens I met just such a candidate for this kind of support this past Labor Day weekend. Unfortunately she lives a bit too far for me to be much in the way of straight-up help. And it would be creepy for me (a 70-year-old man) to look to be too cozy with a 16-year-old young girl. But I have been trying to come up with a way to help in a hands-off fashion. Ideally a woman mentor and some sort of anonymous scholarship setup.

[Rich]

That said, when we travel, we land at airports that are just ghost towns apparently doing nothing other than living on their local and federal subsidies. We've landed at airports with freshly paved runways, modern fuel pumps, recently renovated lounges, and not encountered a single other human or radio call for an hour or two lunch break. Compared to our airport, it's almost spooky.

In a way, I feel like there is lots of pilot interest, but the 'airport community' vibe is gone, which makes it seem uninviting and inaccessible. Every one of us has a sign at our airport that says "Authorized entry only" or something similar - I wonder what would happen if every one of those gates also had a sign that said "Call XXX for free airplane rides! Call XXX for flight lessons!"

I've been to some of those kinds of airports in the past, but I haven't encountered one in many years. Maybe I have just come to select airports/locations that at least have some level of real activity and services. I used to have a problem finding airports to send students to on solo cross-country because many of them around IDA that the right distance were these kinds of zombie airports. And there was this unwritten rule that someone at each airport had to sign the student's logbook. I was actually castigated by an examiner a couple of times because the students had made flight legs to an airport where there was nobody around to sign for them. He couldn't fail them for this, of course because this unwritten rule was, of course, unwritten. They did pass anyway, so whatever...

My current home airport does have signs about authorized entry only, but only right on the ramps and the hangar areas. And nobody enforces this. No real security other than your plane/hangar is locked. Folks do hang around the OK lounge area we have and hangar talk happens organically. But we actually do not have a true FBO in the sense we normally consider one to be. There are a couple of folks that give Flight Instruction, but you have to furnish your own plane somehow.